The global economy has looked gloomy this year owing to the growing impact of the deadly coronavirus (COVID-19). The figures emanating from China have shown that the impact of this virus has exceeded that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which broke out in China in 2003. Most industries in China halted production in a bid to curtail the spread of COVID-19 which has impaired the Chinese economy and countries whose major source of revenue is Tourism.
We take a look at major economic data expected for the week under review.
USD: Banks in the US will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day. This day is set aside to honour President Washington.
EUR: Eurogroup Meetings will hold in Brussels on Monday. The President of the Eurogroup, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs of the member states, and the President of the European Central Bank are expected at the meeting. The outcome of this meeting will determine the strength of the Euro as decisions made there can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health.
AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the last Monetary Policy meeting on Tuesday. The bank kept rate constant at its last meeting citing the impact of trade tensions between the US and China as well as the general easing monetary policy decisions of other Central Banks around the world. The minutes will provide a more detailed analysis of the minutes and a guide for investors as to the expected strength or weakness in the Aussie.
EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected from the powerhouse of the eurozone by 11 am. The data in recent times has surpassed expectations and it is expected to continue in the same light. This data if positive will offer a bit of strength to the common currency.
AUD: Wage Price Index q/q will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data shows the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. Positive growth in the Index is good for the Aussie and will strengthen it against baskets of major currencies.
GBP: Office for National Statistics will make available the CPI data by 10:30 am. The data is a good measure of inflation and is a basis on which the Bank of England makes her interest rate decision. The data has fallen short of expectations in recent time and investors will be on the lookout for this to confirm if the country has been able to successfully turn a corner post Brexit.
CAD: CPI m/m is expected from Canada by 2:30 pm. The Canadian economy has been hit by the sharp drop in oil prices as a result of the Corona Virus as well as the glut in the oil market. A positive CPI will re-ignite hopes of an economy coping well with declining revenue and will be a big boost for the Loonie.
USD: The minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve bank will be released at 8 pm. The bank kept rate constant at the last minutes stating that inflation has remained lower than the 2% target, but robust employment data still provide room for some optimism. The minutes will provide more insight as to other points the bank considered to keep rate the same. Any sight of hawkishness in the minute will provide a boost for the relatively strong Greenback.
AUD: Job data in the name of Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be released from Australia. The Australian economy has been creating jobs at a rate far higher than economists’ expectations before the advent of COVID-19. Australia has been hit by the virus due to her close ties with China in terms of trade. A positive job data will be a boost for the Aussie.
GBP: Office for National Statistics will release the Retail Sales m/m data a measure of the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The data has been well short of expectations in the last three months and a fourth-time repeat of such will further plunder the already weakened Cable.
EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released by the European Central Bank by 1:30 PM. The account provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influence the decision on where to set interest rates. The growth rate in the zone is currently stalling as the GDP of France and Italy shrinks. Brexit is also expected to affect the bloc’s economy as the contribution of the Queens Country will no longer count for the Bloc.
OIL: Crude Oil Inventories will be released by the Energy Information Administration at 5 PM. The slowdown in global economies is affecting demand for Crude Oil in the face of the deadly coronavirus. A surge in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms will further weaken the price of Oil.
EUR: Manufacturing PMI data will be released by France and Germany by 9:15 am and 9:30 am respectively. While the Bloc’s Manufacturing PMI comes out by 10 am. Positive Manufacturing PMI data will lend more strength to the common currency.
GBP: Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI will be released by 10:30 am. The Cable will gain strength on the sight of a positive outcome.
CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m will be released by 2:30 pm. Positive data will boost the commodity supported Loonie.
USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI set to be released by 3:45 pm. The data fell slightly short of expectations the last time but has been good in three of the last 5 releases. The American economy is doing well and the data is envisaged to further confirm it.* Time is GMT+1
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