The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly covering the globe disrupting billions of lives by endangering the global economy. Several countries are on the brink of a recession as they buckle under the pressure of the novel virus. Healthcare systems around the world are on the brink of collapse as even wealthy countries are overwhelmed and cannot provide sufficient hospital beds and ventilators to their citizens who are down due to the virus. 

The U.S Senate on Wednesday finally approved a $2 trillion bill targeted at helping the unemployed and industries wounded by the virus. It will also cater for medical equipment urgently needed for the treatment of COVID19 patients in the country. This relief package is the largest ever passed by congress with affected families set to receive up to $3000. 

The Government of Canada introduced the Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) to help businesses and Individuals affected by the virus. The benefit will provide CAD 500 per week for up to 16 weeks for Canadians who recently lost their income source. 

One of the hardest-hit industries by the virus is the aviation sector and airlines are considering alternatives to remain afloat. Some airlines have commenced utilizing their passenger planes for cargo to boost revenue.

Despite the stimulus packages by the government around the world, Oil continues on a bearish trend as oversupply sentiment outweighs the hopes of the stimulus. Restriction in the movement of people to contain the novel virus had destroyed any tiny hope of a surge in oil demand. The reduced demand for refined crude products would force the hands of refineries to reduce processing rate which will further increase inventories and in turn pressure crude oil prices.

Weekly jobless claims from the US grew to the highest level as the evidence of the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the US economy is brought to the fore. With the growing number of unemployed people, the insurance package may no longer be sufficient to support beneficiaries.

With this in mind, let's have a look at events that will further impact the direction of the financial market next week.

Monday 30th March 

No major economic data expected on this day.

 Tuesday 31st March 

NZD: ANZ Business Confidence is scheduled to be released by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited at 1 am. The data has not shown optimism in the New Zealand economy in recent times and came out well below forecast last month as the global economy grapple with the impact of the novel virus.

GBP: Current Account is scheduled to be released by Office for National Statistics. This data measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. 

USD: The Conference Board Incorporation will release the CB Consumer Confidence by 3 PM. The US economy is hugely affected by CORVID-19 as revealed by the Jobless claims data. The US has been touted to be the next epicentre of the novel virus owing to the rate of infection in the country.  The Greenback has lost ground against a basket of major currencies in the last few days and there seems no respite in sight at the moment.

Wednesday 1st April

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released by 2:15 pm. There was a positive change in the US Non-Farm Private Sector employment last month as 183000 jobs were created as against 170,000 expected by economists this set a good precedence for the NFP which came about far above forecast. Unemployment Claims data released last week has doused all optimism for this week’s Non-Farm employment change data. 

USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be released by the Institute for Supply Management by 3 pm. The data came out slightly above 50 at the last release but is expected to be lower than 50 this time (first time in 3 months).

OIL: Crude Oil Inventories will be released by the Energy Information Administration at 3:30 PM. The data has lost its importance in recent weeks to the dominating force of COVID19 and power tussle between Saudi Arabia and Russia with Iran locking in the background. With the current glut in the market coupled with the fact that countries are running out of storage facilities, the current bearish trend is still intact pending some positive development on the treatment of the novel virus.

Thursday 2nd April 

CAD: Trade Balance will be released by Statistics Canada by 1:30 pm. The forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous forecast as economists priced in the impact of CORVID-19.

USD: Unemployment Claims will be released by the Department of Labor by 1:30 PM. Initial claims released for the week ending 21st March came out as 3,283,000 showing a surge of 3,000,001 from the previous week. The data last week was the highest in the history of jobless insurance up surging the previous high of 695,000 recorded in October 1982. 

Friday 3rd April

USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate slated for 1:30 PM. These employment data are crucial to the strength of the Greenback.

USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be released by the Institute for Supply Management by 4 pm.

• Time is GMT+1