The widespread stay-at-home orders across the globe continue to bite firms and workers harder and harder by the day. In the United States, for instance, the number of Americans who applied for jobless benefits last week increased by a record of 6,648,000 bringing the total increase in the last two weeks to over 10 million individuals. When Congress passed the $2 trillion stimulus package to combat the novel virus last week, it appeared so massive but the recent collapse of American labour market confirmed by the initial jobless claims data in the last 2 weeks may force the hands of the congress to pass additional economic stimulus to fight the pandemic. 

Oil rallied about 25 per cent on Thursday after President Donald Trump tweeted that he expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut oil production by about 10 million barrels and maybe more. Talks between the two major oil producers collapsed early last month, which gave rise to the price war and pushed the commodity to the lowest level in almost 20 years (Since 2004). The pressure on Oil will persist until the two nations with the support of other major non-OPEC producers like Canada, and the United States come to terms and put an end to the price war.

With this in mind, let's have a look at events that will further impact the direction of the financial market next week.

Monday 6th April

CAD: BOC Business Outlook Survey will be released by Bank of Canada by 3:30 PM. Regional offices of the Bank of Canada interview business leaders from about 100 firms to obtain a broad range of economic perspectives that helps the Bank fulfil its mandate. The outlook from businesses will likely not be positive owing to the growing impact of COVID19 on the economy. 

Tuesday 7th April

AUD: Trade Balance will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics by 2:30 am. The data came out well above forecast at the last release despite the impact of CORVID-19. 

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia will release the cash rate by 5:30 am. This data measures Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. The board of the bank decided to reduce the cash rate at the emergency meetings held last month citing gloomy economic outlook. The board may likely keep rate constant this time but with a lot of dovish inferences considering the growing impact of the novel virus.

AUD: RBA Rate Statement follows the Cash rate at 5:30 am. It's among the primary tools the Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. The last statement of the Bank as revealed by the Governor, Philip Lowe stated a reduction in the Cash rate to 0.25%, a target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of around 0.25 per cent, a term funding facility for the banking system, with particular support for credit to small and medium-sized businesses and exchange settlement balances at the Reserve Bank to be remunerated at 10 basis points, rather than zero as would have been the case under the previous arrangements. Governor Philip also stated that the Country’s financial system is resilient and robust to deal with the effects of COVID19. This statement will provide fresh insight into the Australian economy at this trying moment.

Wednesday 8th April

AUD: RBA Financial Stability Review to be released by Reserve Bank of Australia by 2:30 am. It provides the Bank’s assessment of the current condition of the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes by 7 PM. The minutes are a detailed record of the last meeting held by the board and provide an in-depth insight into the economy as well as the financial conditions that influenced the votes on the interest rate. 

Thursday 9th April 

GBP: GDP m/m will be released by 9:30 am. The data measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.  There was no noticeable growth at the last release and a repeat of such or even a decline is expected this time around. 

EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released by the European Central Bank by 12:30 PM. The account provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influence the decision on where to set interest rates. The Bloc’s economy is declining as Coronavirus as led to the shutdown of industries across the zone.

CAD: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate slated for 1:30 PM. These two-job data is envisaged to come forth below forecast as downsizing and right-sizing are the major strategies used by firms at his time to stay afloat in the face of very tough economic conditions. 

USD: Unemployment Claims will be released by the Department of Labor by 1:30 PM. We thought we have seen the worse when over 3 million persons filed for jobless insurance 2 weeks ago but the recent further reveal more trouble in the US economy. More than 6.6 Million individuals filed for jobless claims last week, the worst case ever, overtaking what happened two weeks ago. Will it get worse than this? Time will tell. 

USD: Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m by 1:30 PM from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The two data fell short of expectations at the last release showing a negative change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released by the University of Michigan by 3 PM. Consumer sentiment fell slightly to 89.1 in March, the lowest in recent times and is envisaged to come short of expectations this time around too.

Friday 10th April

USD: CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m by 1:30 PM. This crucial inflation data will be released by the Bureau of labour statistics. FOMC members pay more attention to the Core data as it avoids the consideration of volatile goods such as food and energy. Owing to the current situation in the country, the purchasing power of an average American has declined and one can only expect the inflation rate to be near zero if not lower.

• Time is GMT+1