The highly anticipated meeting of OPEC and its allies finally held on Thursday and it was very smooth up to the last moment when Mexico surprisingly stood out as the only attendee rejecting the proposed 10 million barrels per day cut for May and June. The meeting was held via video conferencing in line with social distancing imposed on the world by the novel coronavirus. OPEC+ is expected to further pressure Mexico to come to terms with the proposed agreement for the good of all.

Jobless rolls continued to mount in the US due to the novel virus shutdown, with a staggering 16.8 million Americans filing for jobless benefits in the last three weeks. The data for this week came slightly better than last week as jobless individuals topped 6million for 2 consecutive weeks. The data released by the Department of Labour on Thursday showed that 6,606, 000 individuals filled for unemployment claims for the first-time last week. There was a decrease of 261,000 from the previous data. The recent surge in the claims can be attributed to the CARES Act which has included self-employed as well as independent contractors who were previously excluded to benefit from the insurance due to the daunting impact of COVID19.

The city where the novel virus began, Wuhan is relaxing the 2 months lockdown despite fears of a rebound. Health workers are carrying out comprehensive health checks with adequate record keeping of health conditions to forestall re-occurrence. The number of new cases in the country has been on the decline and limited mostly to imported cases fuelling optimism that the World’s second-largest economy is on the way to full recovery. This will re-assure the current epicentres of the virus of light at the end of the tunnel once the necessary measures are in place.

With this in mind, let's have a look at events that will further impact the direction of the financial market next week.

Monday 13th April

Banks in most countries will be closed for Easter Monday although the currency market is still open for transactions. Most commodities and Index will not be available due to the holiday.

Tuesday 14th April

AUD: NAB Business Confidence will be released by National Australia Bank Limited. The data will reveal the effect of the coronavirus on the Australian economy that is highly dependent on China for trade relations. Business activities are gradually picking up in China as travel restrictions have been lifted. 

Wednesday 15th April

USD: Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m will be released by Census Bureau by 1:30 pm. Economists pay more attention to the Core data due to the exclusion of Automobiles which is highly volatile thereby distorting the trend.

CAD: BOC Monetary Policy Report will be made available by the Bank of Canada by 3 pm. This report provides valuable insight into the Bank’s perspective on the country’s economic conditions (esp. inflation). This perspective shapes and influences the rate decisions of the bank. 

CAD: BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate from Bank of Canada by 3 pm. The bank lowered the overnight rate to 1.25% from 1.75% at her last meeting which held outside the normal schedule. The bank took the emergency decision to salvage the Canadian economy from the rampaging impact of the novel virus.  

CAD: BOC Press Conference by 4:15 PM to be handled by the Bank of Canada’s Governor, Stephen Poloz and Carolyn A. Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor of the bank. The press conference is one of the main methods of communicating with investors as it provides detailed factors that influenced the most recent interest rate decision. 

Thursday 16th April 

 AUD: Job data in the name of Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be released from Australia. The Australian economy has been creating jobs at a rate far higher than economists’ expectations before the advent of COVID-19 but with business activities picking up in China, Australia is expected to benefit in no time. 

EUR: German Prelim Ifo Business Climate will be released by Information and Forschung (ifo) Institute at 9 am. Expectations of businesses have darkened in recent times as the novel virus continues to cripple the global economy. 

USD: Unemployment Claims will be released by the Department of Labor by 1:30 PM. The data has topped 16 million in the last three weeks but some respite is expected in the coming weeks. With more measures being taken by the government to keep more business afloat the data should pick up soon, though no one can tell how soon. 

Friday 17th April

IMF and G20 Meetings All-day 

• Time is GMT+1