Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised downward its global oil demand estimates for 2020 to 92.8 million barrels per day from 99.7 million barrels per day meaning demand is expected to fall by an average of 6.8million barrels per day this year. The International Energy Agency IEA demand estimates came even lower at 90.5 million barrels per day. The sentiment in the oil market remains bearish despite the OPEC+ output cut as supply still outweighs demand.

‘’The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic may linger longer than earlier predicted’’ says chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath. The IMF is expecting the global economy to shrink by 3% this year before a ‘partial recovery’ of 5.8% next year. Coronavirus has infected more than 2 million persons globally leading to the shutdown of schools and businesses, crippling most of the world’s economic activity. 

The world’s second-largest economy, China, reported a contraction of 6.8% in the first quarter GDP for 2020 compared to the same period last year. This is the first time since the country started providing official records in 1992 that the Chinese economy will contract in the first quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed a drop of 8.4% in industrial production, a 16.1% fall in fixed-asset investment and retail sales by 19%. COVID 19 emerged in the city of Wuhan late December killing thousands in the country and has since grown to a pandemic fuelling the fears of a global recession.

 With this in mind, let's have a look at events that will further impact the direction of the financial market next week. 

Monday 20th April

No major economic data expected on this day. 

Tuesday 21st April

AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes by 2:30 am. The Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia at its last policy meeting decided to keep the rate at 0.25% after two successive cuts in March. The board also stated its total commitment to doing all it takes to support employment. The Monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of Australia had 2 emergency meetings last month to salvage the economy from total collapse by easing the rate first from 0.75% to 0.5% at the March 3rd meeting before a further cut to 0.25% at the March 19th meeting.

AUD: The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe is expected to deliver a speech titled ‘’Economic and Financial Update" at the Reserve Bank of Australia, in Sydney by 6 am. He is also expected to answer questions raised by the audience at the event. 

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected from Germany, the biggest economy in the eurozone by 10 am. The outbreak of the COVID19 virus in Germany is becoming manageable as the number of patients recovering from the illness in the last 5 days has been higher than the number of new infections. The country is expected to take some steps out of the lockdown with the partial opening of some businesses next week and if all goes according to plan schools should be opened by the 4th of May. 

Wednesday 22nd April

GBP: CPI y/y is scheduled to be released by 7 am. This compares the average price of various goods and services compared to the sampling done the same period last year.

Thursday 23rd April 

EUR: Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released by France and Germany by 8:15 am and 8:30 am respectively. While the Bloc's PMI data comes out by 9 am.

GBP: Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI will be released by 9:30 am. The Cable will gain strength on the sight of a positive outcome.

USD: Unemployment Claims is expected from the Department of Labor by 1:30 PM. In the last four weeks, over 21 million Americans have filed for jobless insurance and it is yet to be seen if this will continue to grow as the impact of the virus continues to grow. President Trump is optimistic of having businesses in some state opened for operation from the 1st of May.

 USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI set to be released by 2:45 pm.

Friday 24th April

EUR: Information and Forschung Institute for Economic Research will make available the German Ifo Business Climate by 9 am. 

USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m will be released by 2:30 pm. The Core Durable goods order is more important because it is believed to be a better gauge of trends in purchase orders as volatile goods are excluded.

• Time is GMT+1