Crude oil continued its recent recovery this week on the hope of a rebound in demand. The gradual re-opening of economies offered some form of support to the commodity aiding the OPEC+ cut agreement to achieve its purpose of driving up the price. Crude imports to the US average about 5.7 million barrels per day last week, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active rigs in the US fell by 33 rigs as reported by Baker Hughes on Friday, confirming the Energy Information Administration (EIA’s) estimate that oil production in the US fell to 11.9 million barrels for the week ending 1st May. This figure is 300,000 barrel per day lower than the previous week and 1.2 million barrel per day off the all-time high recorded last year. 

The number of persons filing for Jobless insurance slowed last week, but not as much as anticipated. The re-opening of the economy is expected to accelerate the recovery process in the coming weeks as more persons will be recalled to their jobs. The last seven weeks have seen about 33.48 million persons filing for jobless insurance as 3.169 million new claims were added for the week ending 2nd May. The labour market will remain weak as the fears of contracting COVID19 is expected to limit the operation of businesses in the foreseeable future. 

Non-Farm payroll offers no surprise as 20,500,000 job loss was recorded in April, as Unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, although about 78% of these currently jobless individuals are temporal layoffs as they are expected to be recalled as the effect of the pandemic wane. Some of the measures put in place to curb the spread of the novel virus included total shutdown in the epicentres of the virus and travel restrictions have not helped the course of the labour market. Conversely, Average hourly earnings jumped to 4.7% in April because workers in the lower-paying sectors suffered more job loss compared to the higher paid workers tilting the wage rate to the upside.

President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde delivered the opening remarks at the online edition of the state of the Union conference organized by the European University Institute on Friday. The President highlighted that the bank will play its full part in the recovery of the zone within its mandate while re-iterating the need for government to up her spending. 

With this in mind, let's have a look at events that will further impact the direction of the financial market next week. 

Monday 11th May

NZD: ANZ Business Confidence is scheduled to be released by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited at 2 am. Business confidence is generally dampened by the novel virus but the re-opening of the New Zealand economy is expected to lighten up the mood in the coming weeks. 

Tuesday 12th May

AUD: NAB Business Confidence will be released by National Australia Bank Limited by 2:30 am. The data will reveal the extent of the increased optimism as a result of the re-opening of the Australian economy as well as her major trade partner China.

USD: CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m by 1:30 PM. This crucial inflation data will be released by the Bureau of labour statistics. FOMC members pay more attention to the Core data as it avoids the consideration of volatile goods such as food and energy. 

Wednesday 13th May

AUD: Wage Price Index q/q will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics by 2:30 am. The data shows the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. Positive growth in the Index is good for the Aussie and will strengthen it against baskets of major currencies. 

NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, and RBNZ Rate Statement from Reserve Bank of New Zealand by 3 am. The Bank might consider reducing its Cash rate to further aid the recovery of the New Zealand economy from the massive downturn due to COVID19. The bank is also expected to expand its bond-buying program and offer more stimulus package.

NZD: RBNZ Press Conference will be handled by the Reserve bank of New Zealand Governor, Adrian Orr at 4 am. The Governor will provide answers to questions raised by the press as well as give more insight to the rate decision of the bank. 

GBP:  Prelim GDP q/q, GDP m/m as well as Manufacturing Production m/m is scheduled to be released by 7 am. Traders of the Cable should be on the lookout for these data as they have fallen short of expectations in recent time and a repeat of such will weigh on the Queen's currency.

USD: Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m by 1:30 PM from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The two data were better than forecast at the last release although PPI m/m was in the negative territory. Traders are advised to pay more attention to the Core PPI data. 

USD: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak about the current economic issues at a webinar organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics by 2 pm. He will also provide answers to questions raised by participants. 

Thursday 14th May

AUD: Job data -Employment Change and Unemployment Rate- is expected from the Australia Bureau of Statistics by 2:30 am. About 550,000 jobs have been predicted to be lost in Australia last month due to COVID19 with unemployment rate predicted to jump to 8.3%. 

NZD: Release of Annual budget by the New Zealand Treasury by 3 am. This document outlines the government's budget for the year, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments. 

GBP: Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England Governor will participate in a webinar by 11:30 am. 

USD: Unemployment Claims will be released by the Department of Labor by 1:30 PM. The rising number of individuals filing for jobless insurance is expected to start declining as the gradual opening of the economy kicks off.

CAD: BOC Financial System Review by the Bank of Canada by 3:30 pm. It's an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability - the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into the future of monetary policy. 

CAD: The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz is due to hold a press conference about the Financial System Review, in Ottawa by 4:15 pm. 

Friday 15th May

EUR: German Prelim GDP q/q to be released by Destatis by 7 am. It measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A decline in the GDP comparison is envisaged as forecast stands at -2.3%. 

USD: Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m will be released by Census Bureau by 1:30 pm. Economists pay more attention to the Core data due to the exclusion of Automobiles which is highly volatile thereby distorting the trend.

USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released by the University of Michigan by 3 PM. 

Time is GMT+1