FOMC Meeting: What to expect

Simon Alagbe

Analyst


Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not expected to announce any major policy change at the end of their two days meeting later today but the Fed could send some signals which could jitter the market especially if they do not announce when they will start the slowing down the pace of their asset purchases. 

As of July this year before the spread of the delta variant of the novel virus became a concern, there were talks in many quarters that the rate announcement will come at today's meeting as all economic parameters were close to operating at Pre-Covid levels and optimism of a faster recovery seems closer. 

Fast forward to September, a lot has changed with the spread of the new variant weighing on the hospitality sector and some key industries. The August job print popularly called the Non-Farm Payroll came out 500k below expectations and one of the key components of the fed' mission is to get jobs back to pre-pandemic levels. 




Trading FOMC rate decision

If the Fed surprises us with the announcement of tapering, then the USD is expected to gain strength, Gold weakening and the stock moving southward. 


In case of a bearish stance from the Fed which would be driven by concerns over the job market data and it will also include the Fed hinting that tapering now will be too early and would remain unchanged until at least 2023, then the USD will be weakened, Gold surging up and the stock moving Northward.


 Fundamentals: 

FOMC Economic Projections 7:00 PM

FOMC Statement 7:00 PM

Federal Funds Rate 7:00 PM

FOMC Press Conference 7:30 PM


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