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1st week in August: What to expect

Simon Alagbe


A new month is finally here and coincides with the week's first trading day as traders scramble for direction and fresh insight on different asset classes. 

The stock market continued its recent resurgence as the fresh flow of liquidity in the last couple of days outweighed the sentiment around tightening from Central banks' around the world. The Greenback in recent trading days has been limited to narrow trading and has struggled to hold its way against other major currencies. 

We quickly delve into key economic data expected to be released this week, and the expected impact on different financial Instruments. 

Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to be made available on Tuesday with the expectation of a 50 basis point hike. This means that the bank is continuing its aggressive monetary policy and could in turn raise the risk of economic slowdown and reduction in consumer spending. I expect the third consecutive hike from the RBA to still lend strength to the Aussie before the expected weakness in the labour market becomes obvious. 

I expect the Bank of England to speed up its fight against inflation as the bank is set to accelerate a historic pivot away from the era of cheap money and continue its aggressive rate hike with another 50 basis point this week.

Job data from Canada and United States on Friday. The downward review of the eagerly awaited Non-Farm Employment Change data might be a pointer to the impact the aggressive move of the Central Bank is negatively impacting the labour market. The United States technically entered a phase of recession after posting 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Although the White House has downplayed the fears recent data from the United States says otherwise. If things continue as they are we might get to witness a massive shedding of weight from the Greenback enabling other currencies to regain some of the previously lost ground. 

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