Analyst
As we eagerly await the December Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, let's take a sit and enjoy how the data is being collated and how to trade it profitably.
The NFP
report is released by the United States Department of Labor and is considered
to be one of the most important indicators of the country's employment
situation. It measures the number of paid workers in the United States who are
not employed by a farm.
The
report is released on the first Friday of every month and is closely watched by
economists and investors alike. Let's look at some of the most important
factors to consider when predicting how the market will react to this month's
release.
What Is Non-Farm Payroll?
Non farm
payroll or NFP is a monthly report released by the United States government
that details the changes in the number of people employed by businesses and
organizations outside of the agricultural sector. The report is compiled by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and is considered to be one of the most important
indicators of the overall health of the U.S. economy.
What Is the Significance of Non Farm Payroll for
December 2022?
Non Farm
Payroll, or NFP, is a monthly report compiled by the United States Department
of Labor that tracks the changes in the number of people employed in the United
States across sectors excluding the farming industry. The report is released on
the first Friday of every month and provides analysts and investors with a
snapshot of the health of the United States labor market.
The
significance of NFP cannot be overstated. It is one of the most closely watched
indicators of economic health, and its release often moves global markets. A
strong report typically indicates healthy economic growth and leads to a rise
in stock prices, while a weak report typically leads to a sell-off. For this
reason, it is important for investors to stay up-to-date on NFP news and
announcements.
How Is Non Farm Payroll Calculated?
The non
farm payroll or NFP is a monthly report that is released by the United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics. It details the changes in the number of people
employed in the United States economy, excluding the farming sector.
The
report is compiled from two surveys: the first survey, which is conducted by
the Census Bureau, asks establishments about their payrolls for the pay period
that includes the 12th of the month. The second survey, which is conducted by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, asks households about their employment status
for the week that includes the 12th of the month.
The NFP
is calculated by taking the sum of employment from the first survey and adding
it to the number of employees from the second survey, which gives us the total
number of employed people in the United States.
What Are the Benefits of Non Farm Payroll?
One of
the benefits of nonfarm payroll is that it's a good indicator of employment
trends. The data is used by economists to help them understand whether there's
an increase or decrease in jobs in different sectors of the economy.
Another
benefit is that it can be used to help businesses make decisions about hiring
and expansion. If you're thinking about starting a business, for example,
knowing that there's strong nonfarm payroll growth can give you more confidence
that you'll be able to find employees.
And
finally, nonfarm payroll data can also be used by policymakers to make
decisions about economic policy. If the data shows that job growth is slowing
down, the government may take steps to boost the economy.
How Can I Access Non-Farm Payroll Data?
If you
want to access Non-Farm Payroll data, you first need to go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Once
you're there, you'll see a link for "Employment, Hours, and Earnings from
the Current Population Survey (CPS)."
Click on
that link and you'll be taken to a page with a lot of information on it. Scroll
down until you see the section labeled
"Nonfarm payroll employment." There, you'll find links to data for
the most recent months.
You can
also access older data by clicking on the "Historical" tab at the top
of the page. There, you'll be able to select the year and month you want to
view.
Alternatively, you can use the calendar on forexfactory.com or
tradingeconomics.com
Instruments:
Overall,
the December NFP report for 2022 looks like it could be a strong one. The
report will be closely watched by economists and investors alike, as it will
provide valuable insight into the overall health of the economy.
The first Friday of December will witness the release of the following data
Employment Change (CAD) 2:30 pm
Unemployment Rate (CAD) 2:30 pm
Average Hourly Earnings m/m (USD) 2:30 pm
Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) 2:30 pm
Unemployment Rate (USD) 2:30 pm
The expected volatility of the series of data released with the NFP would
possibly create trading opportunities across dollar pairs and US Index.
The market reaction to the NFP data and other series of job data from Canada and the United States has somewhat been very consistent. The Greenback and the Loonie usually amass strength when the data comes out better than expected meaning traders should place a buy on the two currencies separately. I advise traders to look towards trading other dollar and Canadian dollar pairs in the instance where the two sets of data come out either good or not meet up with expectations. A strong dollar and a strong Canadian dollar paired against each other would limit the potential move and the same is valid for a weak dollar paired against a weak Canadian dollar. The Best time to trade USDCAD on a day like Friday is when the two currencies take either side of coming out good or bad. For example, if all the US data paints a picture of a stronger dollar and the ones from Canada show a weaker loonie, USDCAD will be the best option.
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