Analyst
The GBP is currently certainly not the weakest currency (in fact I expect further gains against EUR, JPY, CHF etc.) - especially after wage data that showed that wages in UK growth the fastest on record over the three months to June. Headline earnings growth surged to 8.2% from 7.2% and well above expectations of 7.3% - also excluding bonuses, wages grew much faster than expected.
At the same time, however, we saw UK unemployment rate increasing to 4.2% from 4.0%. That's the highest levels since October 2021 and shows some cooling in the labor market.
Bond yields in the UK have cooled down again and are now trading just 1.5 basis points higher (10-y gilt) than the previous day. While bond yields in the US also fell and are now almost unchanged, the USD will benefit from hopes of a soft landing as another key US economic indicator - retail sales - came in robust and above expectations.
Following inflation data report earlier today, we are seing a decline in GBP/USD gains and expect the pair to move back towards 1.27000 (and below). We expect rising resistance at 1.27500. Investors suspect UK inflation figures will have a little less importance on today's wage inflation, which is somehow also a lagging factor after the extreme inflation in the UK.
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