Analyst
GBP was weak against USD due to the short-term overbought nature of the GBP and USD strength than actual GBP weakness - although the GBP did come under pressure due to deteriorating risk sentiment. The USD remains bullish in the medium term, as the U.S. economy is outperforming the Fed may keep monetary/financial conditions tight for longer.
We isolate the GBP. The GBP, is likely to remain supported as well from an overall fundamentals perspective given the persistently high inflation in the UK. Yesterday's record rise in wages and today's inflation data showing core inflation unchanged (and very hot) or even accelerating month-on-month continue to be a headache for the Bank of England.
While rising interest rates are associated with costs for households and businesses, stubborn inflation is the bigger problem in the UK. The Bank of England is again expected to raise rates up to 6% - I expect we will see the final rate at 5.75% - 6.0% and therefore tend to agree that more tightening is coming (it's necessary!) - in fact, I would recommend the Bank of England raise rates more quickly.
EURGBP:
Certainly, the final Bank of England policy rates will be much higher than those of the ECB. The spread between interest rates will continue to increase. Traders can take advantage of the pair's slight recovery back to 0.85700 and expect the EUR/GBP to remain bearish.
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