Analyst
US equity futures & European stocks saw a slight but likely short-lived uplift after a comment from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams who hinted that Fed is satisfied with the current position for US monetary policy. Concerns about more hawkishness or higher rates for longer continue to affect market sentiment.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index started with gains but moved lower again - currently trading at -0.25%. Germany reported an inflation rate of 6.1% in August - which was in line with consensus but shows that inflation remained stubborn. The energy sector grabbed attention when Chevron's workers in Australia began strikes, pushing European gas prices up by 11%. This movement stirs concerns over potential disruptions to supply and will increase inflation concerns short-term.
China's offshore-traded CNY is nearing its weakest level ever, raising suspicions of officials being comfortable with the currency's slow depreciation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5%, with significant downturns in Japan and China. Weakness in China, including Japan - which is leading the losses today - will weigh on markets in Europe and, to a lesser extent, Wall Street.
Japan's economy showed mixed indicators with it's Q2 GDP adjusted down to 4.8%, real wages dropped 2.5% y/y, and household spending decreased 5% y/y. On the upside, current account surplus surged, loan values increased, and the service sector sentiment, although lowered, remained positive. This shows a smaller-than-expected quarterly GDP growth, declining capital expenditure, and reduced private consumption. Yet, net trade was positive due to rebounding exports. The overall economy had a slow recovery pace in 2022 due to persistent cost pressures.
In China, an approaching release of August's CPI data (Sept 9) has investors on edge, due to July's data which indicated potential deflationary risks.
Commodities such as oil saw a slight decline, with both Brent and WTI crude futures falling - however, the sharp rise in (European) gas prices and yesterday's sharp decline in US and gasoline inventories (according to the EIA) will continue to provide a tailwind for oil prices. Gold stabilized above $1920/oz.
Key events today:
EUR Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:00 UTC+0 (released)
CAD Unemployment Rate - 12:30 UTC+0
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