Analyst
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is slightly negative after experiencing a rise in early trading. UK unemployment rates rose to 4.3% between May-July 2023, the highest since Q3 2021, indicating potential cooling in the job market. UK Wage growth, excluding bonuses, experienced its most significant year-on-year increase since 2001 (+7.8%). This increases pressure on the Bank of England for a possible rate adjustment.
ZEW economic expectations for Germany were mixed, but remained very pessimistic. The sentiment index for the Eurozone (September) came in well short of expectations, dropping to -8.9 from -6.2 expected and -5.5 in August. Overall, the data shows little consumer confidence that the economic situation in Germany / the Eurozone will improve soon. European equities will come under additional pressure from the pessimistic data.
Investors are anticipating the release of US CPI reports (Sept 13) as well as the ECB rate decision (Sept 14). Market consensus is expecting US inflation to rise to 0.6% while they expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged.
US futures remained stable. The US market's inflation expectations remained largely consistent in August, although the upcoming consumer-price index report is critical. If inflation surpasses the 0.6% expectation, it may influence future bond market movements.
Apple is set to introduce its iPhone 15 series and next-gen smartwatches at its "Wonderlust" event on Tuesday. Anticipation surrounds Apple, aiming to reverse several quarters of muted sales with fresh offerings.
Asian stocks showed mixed results, with China seeing a decline of over 0.15%, while Japan showed rebound from yesterday's losses - rising over 0.95%. Chinese shares turned negative, despite Country Garden Holdings Co.'s bondholder payment extension news.
In currency news, the JPY and also the CNY remained stable after the People’s Bank of China's daily fixing rate setting. Japanese government bonds drew attention, with the yield on the five-year note dropping to 0.27% post-auction. The EUR sees some headwinds while the USD reversed some of its close to 0.5% loss against a basket of currencies on Monday and stabilized ahead of US CPI data.
Oil prices hovered near annual highs. Gold stayed consistent above $1,920 per ounce.
Key events today:
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index - 00:30 UTC+0 (released)
Unemployment Rate - 06:00 UTC+0 (released)
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - 09:00 UTC+0 (released)
API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30 UTC+0
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