Analyst
This week has a quiet start to a busy economic week ahead. Stocks declined as traders reduced their risk exposure in anticipation of upcoming monetary policy decisions from the US, UK, and Japan this week and following a turbulent week.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 experienced a drop, pushed down in particular by a 7% slump in Société Générale after an underwhelming strategic plan. Markets in Europe await the release of CPI data tomorrow (Sept 19). European markets lost most of Friday's early gains that came in response to stronger than expected China data.
US markets ended last week lower and saw significant losses on Friday with the Nasdaq dropping 1.56%, S&P 500 falling 1.22%, and Dow descending 0.83%. US tech giants, including Nvidia and Meta, fell over 3.5% each, influencing similar declines in Asia's tech sector. US equity futures are unchanged today.
US treasury yields rise, with the two-year rate crossing 5%, while the USD weakens against most G-10 currencies
Markets anticipate the FED Interest Rate Decision (Sept 20). Expectations for another rate hike increased after recent very robust US economy data. SmartTrader Chief analysts Robert Lindner says a rate hike is very unlikely given the mixed data but the Fed see likely (even) less reasons to plan any rate cuts.
Recession fears rise as Morgan Stanley’s client survey foresees a challenging year ahead for stocks and a potential US recession in 2024. The inclination shifts towards bonds, especially investment grade, over equities.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped by 1.6%, and China’s CSI 300 touched its year's lowest. Positive data from the last week helped China’s index recover some of its losses - with main indices in China ending the day higher. We saw the opposite on Friday, with lower Chinese markets and tech heavy Hang Seng (Hong Kong) ending positively.
Oil prices continue to rise as Brent crude approaches $95 per barrel as OPEC+ cuts supply. WTI increased it's position above $90/barrel. Anticipation builds around the Saudi Energy Minister's speech regarding the oil supply outlook. Hedge funds increase their bullish stance on Brent and US crude. Gold remained stable after Friday's gains.
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