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Stock rally fizzles - investors await further statements from Fed decision-makers; Oil stabilizes after slump

Olusegun Enujowo


Global markets have a muted start to a slow day. Anticipation builds around central bank officials' speeches later today, expected to shed light on the interest rate trajectory and address market expectations of a pivot away from aggressive hikes. 

We holds a bearish outlook on equities, cautioning against overbought conditions despite recent rallies, and advises a short position anticipating a reversal in the market upswing. We are well positioned specifically shorting the US 100 and DE 30

European markets remain unchanged with the Stoxx 600 trading 0.14% higher. Travel and leisure stocks declined, retail sector was also lower, however, the industrial sector moved higher. This shows a pause in investor optimism while waiting for central bank insights, particularly from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.

 In the US, the major indices closed flat yesterday and remained little changed in pre-market trading today, reflecting a cautious stance - both the US 500 and the US 100 closed marginally in the green yesterday and extended their winning streaks by another day, with the big tech stocks again making their gains the deciding factor on an otherwise rather red day. The markets are awaiting the US labor market data (13:30 UTC+0), which will provide more information on the state of the US economy. 

Asian stocks show mixed results following China's dip into deflation. China's October CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.2% year-on-year, signaling the first deflation since July and reflecting weak consumer demand. Monthly CPI also decreased by 0.2%, with a significant 4.0% drop in food prices compared to last year, indicating excess supply and reduced consumption post-Golden Week. Producer prices remained in deflation for the 13th month, with a 2.6% year-on-year drop in October, slightly better than the 2.7% anticipated fall. These figures highlight China's economic headwinds and may provide room for policymakers to implement stimulus without immediate inflation concerns. 

Oil prices find a tentative floor near a three-month low as markets balance ongoing supply concerns against potential shifts in central bank policies. WTI Crude oil is currently trading at around $75/barrel. Gold prices  remain relatively unchanged at $1,949/oz. 

Key events today:   

CNY  Inflation Rate / CPI, PPI - 01:30 UTC+0 (released) 

USD  Initial Jobless Claims - 13:30 UTC+0 

EUR  ECB President Lagarde Speech - 17:30 UTC+0  

USD Fed Chair Powell Speech - 19:00 UTC+0 

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