Analyst
The U.S. and China have reached a fresh deal to put their trade truce back on track following a round of crunch meetings in London. Speaking at the end of two marathon days of discussions, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the agreement will put "meat on the bones" on a prior deal struck in Geneva last month -- which, despite easing some fears over an intensifying trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies, has shown signs of fragility.
While Tuesday’s announcement was short of particulars, Lutnick did claim that there was a resolution to a Chinese move to cut off access to a handful of metals crucial for American industry and the U.S. military. Lutnick added that Washington’s response to the measures would be unwound in a "balanced" manner, but did not provide further specifics.
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang also noted that a "framework" deal had been forged in principle, and would now be brought to Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for final approval. "The Sino-American trade negotiations in London have yielded plans to revive the flow of sensitive goods, but have failed to mark a breakthrough," analysts at ING said in a note to clients.
CPI ahead
Highlighting the economic calendar on Wednesday will be key gauge of U.S. inflation, which may provide the latest indication of the effect of Trump’s punishing tariffs on price growth and possibly factor into how the Federal Reserve approaches future interest rate decisions.
The Labor Department’s consumer price index is tipped to speed up slightly to 2.5% from 2.3%, while the month-on-month gauge is expected to match April’s pace of 0.2%. Stripping out more volatile items like food and fuel, the index is seen edging up to 2.9% year-over year and 0.3% on a monthly basis. Despite Trump’s decision to delay elevated "reciprocal" levies on most countries, universal 10% duties, as well as heightened trade taxes on items like steel and aluminum, remain in effect. Meanwhile, analysts have noted that the effective U.S. tariff rate has risen sharply since Trump’s return to office in January.
Economists have flagged that the tariffs could drive up inflationary pressures and weigh on broader economic activity. With this uncertainty in mind, the Fed has recently opted to leave interest rates on hold, and markets are now not expecting the central bank to resume its cycle of borrowing cost reductions until September at the earliest.
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